To achieve the best results in super forecasting, one can break down difficult questions by following these steps: First, unpack the question into components. This involves identifying the different parts of the question and understanding what each part is asking. Second, distinguish which parts you know and which ones you don't. This will help you focus on the areas where you need to gather more information. Third, put the problem into a comparative perspective that downplays the situation's uniqueness. This involves comparing the problem to similar situations and identifying common patterns. Finally, look at factors that play up a situation's uniqueness and synchronize your findings to make as precise a judgement as you can. Remember, super forecasters adjust their views in light of new information as often as necessary.
Did you know it's possible to make accurate predictions about the future without psychic powers? Giv...
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